In 2014, the global supply of large-size panels will reach 880 million pieces, with a supply-demand ratio of 6.3%. The overall supply and demand tend to be slightly surplus, but structural shortages may occur in some markets. Therefore, panel manufacturers need to maintain a balanced supply and demand for various applications through more reasonable product and production layout and timely capacity allocation. In 2014, the Chinese market will be full of vitality. On the basis of the continued expansion of production capacity, Chinese panel makers will also break the technological monopoly of Japan and South Korea in key technology areas and create a new pattern of industrial competition.
TV panel overall supply and demand balance
The overall supply and demand of TV panels are balanced, and local markets are inadequate, while mobile phones and tablet PC panels are surplus, and each application performs differently.
In 2014, the overall supply and demand of TV panels will be balanced, and there will be insufficient supply in some markets. In 2014, the supply of TV panels will show a slight increase, on the one hand, because of the low profit of some sizes, on the other hand, the increase in production capacity will change from an increase in volume to an increase in size. The newly added capacity in 2014 is mainly based on the 8.5-generation line, which is mainly used to produce 42-inch, 48-inch, 49-inch, 55-inch, 65-inch and other large-size panels. The supply of corresponding size segments will be relatively ample, while the Part of the size of the 7.5 generation line may be tight due to limited production capacity.
In 2014, the supply of smartphones and tablet panels may be in excess. The global smartphone and tablet PC market continues to grow rapidly, and due to the higher profit margins of mobile phones and tablet panels relative to TV and PC panels, there will be more G6 production capacity and more in the production of mobile phones and tablet panels in 2014. It is expected that some of the newly added capacity in 2014 will also be put into tablet panel production. In 2014, the demand for tablet panels was 280 million, and the supply was 340 million. The supply-demand ratio will reach 22.4%. The substantial increase in supply will cause the global supply of tablet panels to increase by a significant 70%. Blind large investment may result in an oversupply of smartphones and tablets in 2014.
The PC market will continue to be sluggish in 2014, but it may be out of stock due to a substantial reduction in input by panel makers. The desktop display market has been saturated due to the replacement effect of notebook computers, and has been in decline for three consecutive years. Under the erosion of the tablet computer market, the notebook computer market began to decline significantly in 2013, and the decline of the notebook market in 2014 will slow down. For panel makers, in 2014, they will reduce the production capacity of monitors and notebook panels. With the gradual transfer of mobile phones and tablets to the generation line above G6, the production of monitors and notebook panels is crowded out at both ends of TV and tablet computers and mobile phone applications. Out of stock may occur in 2014.
Mainland TV panel self-sufficiency rate will reach 40%
Chinese manufacturers continue to expand investment, and it is expected that the global market share of large-size panels will reach 20%, and break the monopoly pattern of OLED technology.
In 2012, the pattern of the flat panel display industry changed, and the importance of Chinese panel makers and the Chinese market became increasingly prominent. The "triple-legged" competition pattern dominated by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in China was gradually replaced by the "three countries, four places" pattern. From 2014 to 2015, it will be an important period for panel manufacturers in Taiwan, China and South Korea to explore the development direction and enhance competitiveness.
First, Korean manufacturers have strengthened the advantages of the vertical industry chain and shifted their focus to China. The Korean factory has very complete and strong support from upstream materials to terminal brands. Samsung and LG both occupy the forefront of global shipments from mobile phones to TVs, bringing effective export to the panel. With the rise of the Chinese market, Samsung and LGD have built 8.5-generation panel plants in Suzhou and Guangzhou, China, to gain a competitive advantage in the Chinese market.
Second, Chinese Taiwanese manufacturers focus on product differentiation and conservative investment strategies. China's Taiwan panel manufacturers Innolux and AUO are relatively complete in the layout of the panel generation line. They can make the best economical cutting products for various applications in different generation lines, and lead other panel manufacturers to launch new size products. At the same time, our Taiwanese manufacturers also have the world's largest 5G and 6G production capacity, and have mature production technology and experience in small and medium size. In addition, the depreciation of Taiwanese manufacturers in China is basically over, and the manufacturing cost is more competitive. However, China's Taiwanese manufacturers have fewer 8.5-generation lines, insufficient high-generation capacity, and the panel industry's continued loss and conservative investment strategy, which may face huge challenges in the next round of industrial competition.
Third, panel makers in mainland China have made efforts to continue to expand investment. Although the panel industry in mainland China started late, it has made considerable progress after nearly 10 years of hard work. It is expected that the global market share of large-size panels (7 inches and above) of mainland panel manufacturers will increase from 13% in 2013 to 20% in 2014, with shipments reaching 17.6 million pieces; the market share of tablet computer panels will be from 2013 11% of the year increased to 25% in 2014. In 2013, the self-sufficiency rate of TV panels in Mainland China panel factories reached 32%. With the mass production of BOE, LGD and Samsung 8.5 generation lines, it is expected that the self-sufficiency rate of TV panels in Mainland China will reach 40.3% in 2014. In addition, the proportion of localized supporting materials for panel materials in mainland China will further increase. In 2014, Huaxing Optoelectronics and BOE will mass-produce low-cost products with localized materials accounting for more than 60%.
After nearly 5 years of continuous investment, by the end of 2013, there were 10 panel production lines with mass production of G5 and above in Mainland China, including 2 6-generation lines and 3 8.5-generation lines. In March 2014 and June 2014, BOE Hefei 8.5 generation line and LGD Guangzhou 8.5 generation line will be officially mass-produced. At the same time, BOE will mass-produce the first oxide technology TV panel in mainland China in 2014. Tianma Xiamen, BOE Ordos and Shanghai Hehui will also gradually mass-produce LTPS LCD and AMOLED panels in 2014, which is expected to break Japan, South Korea The monopoly of LTPS and AMOLED technology by manufacturers has created a new pattern of future industrial competition. By the end of 2014, the total production area of ​​panel factories above G5 (including) in mainland China will reach 37.44 million square meters, accounting for 16% of the total capacity of panel factories above G5 (including) in the world.
It is expected that in 2015, mainland China will mass-produce five more 8.5-generation lines and one 5.5-generation LTPS production line. It is worth mentioning that, in 2014, mainland Chinese manufacturers will face competition from domestic production lines of Korean factories. Panel manufacturers in mainland China must continue to strengthen their competitiveness. In addition to improving the production line capacity, production costs, core technology, Seek greater progress and breakthroughs in product planning and capacity allocation to form a differentiated competitive advantage.
Surface and OLED competition attract attention
UHD TV grew rapidly in 2014. The competition between curved LCD TVs and OLED TVs has attracted widespread attention in the industry.
In the display industry led by high-tech, panel technology has always been an important growth point to stimulate consumer demand. Since 2010, the flat panel display industry has experienced a period of rapid development. For example, LED backlights have replaced CCFL and started to develop thin and energy-saving; the visual experience has evolved from 2D to 3D to naked eye 3D; the borders have narrow, very narrow borders to no borders; The rate of development is extremely clear from HD, FHD to UHD; touch screen technology from GG to OGS to On cell and In cell; the shape of the panel is also from flat to curved; it also includes the large-scale and flexible AMOLED developed by the panel manufacturer for decades. Display technology. The development of panel technology is also an important way to reduce costs, such as the improvement of product yield, the reduction of the number of photomasks, the UV rubbing technology that simplifies the process, the WRGB technology that increases the transmittance, and the technology called the sub-era technology of the LCD process. Oxide technology is all about reducing costs as the ultimate goal.
In 2014, the intelligent display terminal will become the focus of industry development, including the interactive experience of mobile phones, computers, TVs, wearable mobile devices, etc., and resource sharing will become a hot spot in the display market. TV intelligence will be popularized in 2014. The penetration rate of China's smart TV market will increase from 49% in 2013 to 78% in 2014.
2013 is the beginning period of UHD. With the reduction of UHD TV cost, price, rich content and gradual improvement of size and specifications, 2014 will become a period of rapid growth of UHD TV. The global penetration rate of UHD TVs is expected to increase to 5.4% in 2014, and the penetration rate of the Chinese TV market is expected to reach 13%.
Today, LCD technology is becoming more and more mature, and technology development has gradually entered a bottleneck period. Large-scale AMOLED and oxide process technology developed by Japanese and Korean manufacturers have spent a lot of manpower and financial resources, and mass production has not yet been achieved in 2013. In addition to Samsung and LGD planning mass production in 2014, Japan's Matsushita and Sony have announced that they will abandon cooperative R & D. Therefore, whether the Korean factory can mass-produce OLED TVs is the industry's most concern in 2014.
Curved LCD TVs and OLED TVs are competing with each other, and they have received widespread attention. In the third quarter of 2013, Taiwan ’s AUO has cooperated with Sony to launch a 65-inch UHD curved LCD TV. Subsequently, Changhong also launched a sample of a 55-inch UHD curved TV in the fourth quarter, which will be officially mass-produced in 2014. Compared to OLED curved TVs, LCD curved TVs have attractive price advantages and are more affordable. Therefore, South Korean manufacturers Samsung and LGD also plan to launch LCD curved screens in 2014. It is estimated that the price difference between curved LCD TVs and flat LCD TVs will shrink further in 2014.
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